Carrington Flare of 1859 as a Prototypical Worst-Case Solar Energetic Particle Event

Recent analyses of ice core samples indicate that the Carrington flare of 1859 was the largest event observed in the past 500 years. These ice core data yield estimates of the proton fluence for energies greater than 30 MeV, but provide no other spectrum information. Assuming that the proton energy distribution for such an event is similar to that measured for other recent, large events, total ionizing doses in deep space are estimated for these hypothetical worst-case spectra. These estimated doses, as large as 50 krad (Si), could be catastrophic for sensitive electronic devices unless substantial shielding is provided.